La política comercial peruana reciente

After reviewing the policies of the 1960-1990 period, this paper attempts to survey the commercial and exchange liberalization policies carried out by the Peruvian government between 1990 and 1997, trying thereafter to appraise the consequences of these policies. With regards to commercial liberalization, it is underscored that while the average nominal tariff fell sharply between 1990 and 1997, tariff revenues as a percentage of total imports were hardly affected, situation that is explained by the simultaneous elimination of quantitative restrictions and tariff rebates. On the side of exports, taxes on traditional exports were abolished, and the same fate suffered the subsidy to non-traditional exports (Certex), which was replaced by a variety of instruments (drawback, temporal admission, and industrial tax-free areas). The main outcome of commercial liberalization has been to go from a trade surplus of US$1,200 million in 1989 to a deficit of US$2,000 in 1996. On the other hand, the elimination of exchange controls allowed for the return of private capital that flew from the country during the 70's and 80's, and the capture of a bigger portion of the revenue of drug traffickers which, together with the inflow of foreign capital, have given rise to some kind of Dutch Disease, with the consequent effects on the real exchange rate. It is also argued that the disputes between the Peruvian government and the Andean Group were more the result of a disproportionate trade deficit with the Andean countries, and of a Peruvian government concerned with protecting its revenues, and less the product of a neoliberal predisposition that induced it to oppose a non-flat Common External Tariff. The importance of the Peruvian trade with its Andean partners is underscored showing that those countries constitute a very important market for Peruvian non-traditional exports. Finally, the factors that explain the vitality of current economic program, in spite of the large unbalances that have occurred since 1990, are discussed, underlining, among others, the importance of the reversal of capital flight starting in 1990, the inflow of foreign capitals associated to the privatization of public enterprises, and the big relief that the emigration of labor meant for the domestic labor market.