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The Diffusion of Cellular Telephony in Portugal before UMTS: A Time Series Approach

Author

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  • Pedro Pereira

    () (Autoridade da Concorrência)

  • José C. Pernías-Cerrillo

    () (Universitat Jaume I, Castellón)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a methodology to estimate diffusion processes that differs from the standard practice in two ways. First, we model the nonlinear long-run trend through the Richards curve, which is more flexible than the standard alternatives. Second, we propose a dynamic specification that accounts for: short-run dynamics, and a tendency to correct deviations from the nonlinear long-run trend. We apply the model to the diffusion of cellular telephony in Portugal. Statistical tests show that our model outperforms the standard diffusion models. We also use the model to characterize the diffusion process of the Portuguese cellular telephone industry, and test several hypothesis about the recent evolution of the industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Pereira & José C. Pernías-Cerrillo, 2005. "The Diffusion of Cellular Telephony in Portugal before UMTS: A Time Series Approach," Working Papers 08, Portuguese Competition Authority.
  • Handle: RePEc:pca:wpaper:08
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    File URL: http://www.concorrencia.pt/download/WP08_mobilept.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2005
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    Cited by:

    1. Lukasz Grzybowski & Pedro Pereira, 2006. "Simulation of Merger in Mobile Telephony in Portugal," Working Papers 06-22, NET Institute, revised Oct 2006.
    2. Theologos Dergiades & Apostolos Dasilas, 2010. "Modelling and forecasting mobile telecommunication services: the case of Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(18), pages 1823-1828.
    3. Lukasz Grzybowski & Pedro Pereira, 2007. "Merger Simulation in Mobile Telephony in Portugal," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 31(3), pages 205-220, November.

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