The Italian Electricity Prices in Year 2025: an Agent-Based Simulation
In this paper, we build a realistic large-scale agent-based model of the Italian dayahead-electricity market based on a genetic algorithm and validated over several weeks of 2010, on the basis of exact historical data about supply, demand and network characteristics. A statistical analysis confirms that the simulator well replicates the observed prices. A future scenario for the year 2025 is then simulated, which takes into account market's evolution and energy vectors' price dynamics. The future electricity prices are contrasted with the ones that might arise considering also the possible (yet unlikely) construction of new nuclear power (NP) plants. It is shown that future prices will be higher than the actual ones. NP production can reduce the prices and their volatility, but the size of the impact depends on the pattern of the expected demand load, and can be negligible.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: via del Santo, 33 - 35122 Padova|
Phone: +39 +49 8274210
Fax: +39 +49 827.4211
Web page: http://www.decon.unipd.it/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Raffaele Dei Campielisi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.