Good governance pays? A cross sectional analysis of export performance and environmental compliance enforcement

Does export performance predict environmental compliance and enforcement outcomes? Using 2023 export records of Peru's fishing firms matched with the records of the national environmental enforcer (OEFA), we test whether export revenue predic ts (a) the probability that a firm complies with its environmental obligations and (b) the severity of the fine it faces if it does not, for 112 firms with confirmed compliance status. In a linear model, the compliance relationship depends on how complianc e is coded (confirmed infraction or fine only): it is negative and significant under only one of two compliance standards. A quadratic extension reveals a statistically significant inverted U in the 2023 data: compliance rises among the smallest exporters, peaks below the median export level and declines thereafter; with 2022 or 2024 exports the curve keeps this shape but is not significant at the 5% level. Among the 90 (76 under the fine only compliance standard) non compliant firms, higher export revenue is associated with larger fines, mainly among the largest exporters, also when export volume replaces revenue. T his association loses statistical significance once activity type and the number of facilities a firm operates are controlled for, or when the s ample is reweighted for selection. These patterns are cross sectional associations, not causal effects