Complete Loss of Competition: Uncontested Elections and Political Rents

This study examines how the complete absence of electoral competition shapes politicians' behavior in a democracy. To explore this, we focus on uncontested elections, which are common in democracies worldwide yet are understudied. We develop a dynamic model with belief updating in which politicians elected unopposed lower their perceived risk of future challenges and raise their optimal salary. We test these predictions using the context of Japan's uncontested elections, which operate within a common institutional framework. We find that mayors who win office without a contest subsequently increase their salaries. The salary response is largest after the first uncontested win and smaller thereafter, consistent with learning and belief convergence in the model. These findings suggest that when visible public conflict -such as the presence of other candidates- is absent, politicians are more likely to seek personal gain, highlighting the fundamental role of elections in disciplining officeholders.