The rapidly changing landscape of international student mobility to the UK

International student mobility (ISM) is a critical component of the global migration system, with profound implications for higher education financing, soft power, and geopolitical relations. Within this, the UK is the second leading destination for international students, but its position is under mounting pressure. Using administrative data from the UK’s Colleges and Admissions Service (UCAS) covering applications from 86 countries between 2010-2024, we apply machine learning forecasting to project undergraduate applications through to 2030. Our approach produces disaggregated, country-level forecasts based on the timeliest data. Our findings reveal evidence of the emergence of an increasingly concentrated system: China, India, and the EU, despite the EU’s dramatic post-Brexit decline, will comprise of over 60% of applications by 2030. This trend reflects a concentration paradox, where growth in successful applications from these blocs is expected to slow but reliance intensifies, increasing system vulnerability to policy volatility and geopolitical shocks. These results underscore vulnerabilities in the UK higher education system and hold important insight for migration governance systems and institutions.