Wuhan University,China“Sun Flag Incident”: An OSINT Analysis Report

This study aims to conduct a systematic assessment of the ‘red circle and white chairs’ incident at Wuhan University's 2025 commencement ceremony and its broader context within Sino-Japanese exchanges through open-source intelligence (OSINT) methodologies. The objective is to uncover potential cultural narrative risks and pathways of external influence. Methodologically, the study combines Competitive Hypothesis Analysis (CHA) with red team logic modelling, embedding the STEMPLES framework (Symbols, Timing, Events, Information, Processes, Leadership, Externalities, Structure) to conduct a multidimensional analysis of the event's symbolic risks, narrative imbalances, process vulnerabilities, and leadership behaviour. Findings indicate that the Wuhan University Party Committee's high-frequency exchanges with Japan between 2019 and 2025, coupled with the semi-autonomous operational mechanism of the Japanese alumni association, provided ‘soft influence pathways’ for cultural infiltration and misinterpretation of public discourse. The ‘red circle + white chair’ design, interpreted by the public as symbolising the ‘Japanese flag,’ exposed deficiencies in political sensitivity oversight during major ceremonies. Although no conclusive hostile intelligence networks or financial irregularities were identified, evidence indicates that uncontrolled symbolism and narrative gaps amplified opportunities for external narrative manipulation. In conclusion, this paper advocates establishing cross-departmental risk mitigation mechanisms to strengthen political security reviews of visual and narrative design. This should form a closed-loop system comprising ‘pre-event screening, in-process intervention, and symmetrical post-event responses’ to prevent symbolic missteps from strategic exploitation. Such measures offer valuable insights for universities' security governance in international cooperation and cultural exchange.