Beyond circumstances ; A Structural‐Demographic analysis of France (1950‐2023)

Structural-Demographic Theory (SDT) offers a systemic and long-term perspective that moves beyond circumstantial interpretations of political events. Rather than focusing on discrete episodes such as protests, reforms, or crises, it seeks to identify the underlying dynamics that shape how societies evolve over time. This approach enables a deeper understanding of political instability and how certain historical configurations repeatedly produce tensions between populations and institutions. This paper introduces a Political Stress Index (Ψ) designed as a retrospective and prospective tool. This index aim to identify periods during which structural stress accumulates and aligns across three dimensions: elite overproduction and factionalism, fiscal fragility of the state, and the potential of the population to mobilize. When these variables rise together, the likelihood of significant institutional change increases. Applying this framework to post-war France, we argue that recent political unrest should be interpreted not as a series of isolated disruptions, but as the cumulative effect of deep structural transformations. Our findings suggest that contemporary France faces increasing demographic changes and institutional misadaptation. By aligning with long-term trends in electoral sociology, this analysis offers a reinterpretation of recent events as part of a broader trajectory of strain. It invites renewed attention to the systemic roots of instability and emphasizes the importance of institutional adaptation in periods of rising structural stress.