IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/t9pur_v1.html

The Geometry of Power: Path Integrals in the Dynamics of Political Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Edward, Caesar

Abstract

This paper, "The Geometry of Power," presents a path-integral framework for analyzing the dynamics of political regimes under uncertainty. Whereas the earlier work, The Calculus of Power, focused on optimal paths, the present approach replaces single optimal paths with ensembles of permissible political histories, each weighted by an action functional. In this paper, we also introduce the concepts of path entropy, state entropy, and free action to describe the structures of political accessibility and strength. We then used Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated with political, economic, and conflict indicators, to test the validity of the framework on six East African countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. The aim of the analysis is to evaluate the relative accessibility of democratic, authoritarian, military, and collapsed regime endpoints. The results show that the stability of regimes and shifts is governed not only by minimizing costs but also by the “entropy of the geometry” that shapes rational political behavior under uncertainty. Authoritarian regimes are found to be structurally strong under prevailing regional constraints. However, democratic transitions are restricted to narrow and fragile pathways.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward, Caesar, 2026. "The Geometry of Power: Path Integrals in the Dynamics of Political Regimes," SocArXiv t9pur_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:t9pur_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/t9pur_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/695bb48f25ae28804a8a6d09/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/t9pur_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, December.
    2. Edward, Caesar, 2025. "Calculus of Power Real Options in the Dynamics of Political Regimes," SocArXiv fyhtp_v2, Center for Open Science.
    3. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wafa Ghardallou & Dorsaf Sridi, 2020. "Democracy and Economic Growth: a Literature Review," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 982-1002, September.
    2. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    3. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2010. "Erratum: Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1252-1257.
    4. Mohammad Zulfan Tadjoeddin, 2012. "Electoral conflict and the maturity of local democracy in Indonesia: testing the modernisation hypothesis," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 476-497.
    5. Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
    7. Leopoldo Fergusson & Carlos Molina, 2020. "Facebook Causes Protests," HiCN Working Papers 323, Households in Conflict Network.
    8. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Paul J. Gertler & Marco Gonzalez-Navarro & Simeon Nichter, 2022. "Vulnerability and Clientelism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3627-3659, November.
    9. Marks, Phillipa & Marks, Brian, 2007. "Spectrum Allocation, Spectrum Commons and Public Goods: the Role of the Market," MPRA Paper 6785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Stern, Nicholas, 2018. "Public economics as if time matters: Climate change and the dynamics of policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 4-17.
    11. Krause, M.U., 2002. "Inter-Industry Wage Differentials and Job Flows," Discussion Paper 2002-3, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Wong, Kit Pong & Yi, Long, 2013. "Irreversibility, mean reversion, and investment timing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 770-775.
    13. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2004. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Issues and Cross‐Country Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 351-408, July.
    14. Atal, Vidya & Bar, Talia & Gordon, Sidartha, 2016. "Project selection: Commitment and competition," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 30-48.
    15. Yonggu Kim & Keeyoung Shin & Joseph Ahn & Eul-Bum Lee, 2017. "Probabilistic Cash Flow-Based Optimal Investment Timing Using Two-Color Rainbow Options Valuation for Economic Sustainability Appraisement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-16, October.
    16. Ouedraogo, Benoît & Ouedraogo, Idrissa & Sawadogo, Hamidou, 2025. "Effects of trade openness on income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa: direct effects and transmission channels," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    17. Bergendahl, Goran, 2005. "Models for investment in electronic commerce--financial perspectives with empirical evidence," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 363-376, August.
    18. Prelipcean, Gabriela & Boscoianu, Mircea, 2019. "Aspect Regarding the Design of Active Strategies for Venture Capital Financing – the Flexible Adjustment for Romania as a Frontier Capital Market," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2019), Rovinj, Croatia, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Rovinj, Croatia, 12-14 September 2019, pages 187-196, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.
    19. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    20. Chahim, M. & Hartl, R.F. & Kort, P.M., 2011. "The Deterministic Impulse Control Maximum Principle in Operations Research : Necessary and Sufficient Optimality Conditions (replaces CentER DP 2011-052)," Discussion Paper 2011-133, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:t9pur_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.