Do Storms Bring Crime? Evidence from US Counties

Little causal evidence exists regarding the long-term impacts of natural disasters on crime. Using a balanced panel of county-level crime data spanning 1980–2020, this paper estimates the short- and long-run effects of hurricanes of varying intensities that affected U.S. counties between 1990 and 2010. Findings indicate that while minor hurricanes have little effect on crime, major hurricanes cause significant increases in property crime. In the decade following exposure to major hurricanes, property crime rates rise by 8.5% relative to the baseline mean, imposing an estimated per-capita social cost of $120 on treated counties. These effects are largely driven by evacuation orders and selective out-migration in the short run and by declining per-capita incomes in the long run. Furthermore, hurricane effects are disproportionately larger for counties with less disaster experience and lower incomes, which risk losing 1.4% and 2.2% of per capita GDP, respectively, due to hurricane-induced crime. Overall, the findings underscore the need for greater resource allocation toward vulnerable communities and increased investment in disaster resilience measures to mitigate the economic and social consequences of climate change.