Beneath the Surface: Measuring Hidden Indifference in Japanese Territorial Attitudes

Japan is currently engaged in three major territorial disputes: the Northern Territories, Takeshima, and the Senkaku Islands. While official government surveys consistently report high levels of public concern, respondents may overstate their engagement due to social desirability bias. To address this, this paper employs a list experiment through an online opt-in survey of 4,500 Japanese citizens to estimate the proportion of the population that is privately indifferent to each dispute. Using AMEs from an ICT regression model, the results reveal substantial levels of hidden indifference: approximately 19% for Takeshima, 11% for the Senkaku Islands, and 5% for the Northern Territories. Crucially, this indifference is not randomly distributed but is systematically structured by socioeconomic and geographic factors. The analysis shows that indifference is significantly higher among individuals in precarious employment. Furthermore, residents of metropolitan areas, such as Tokyo and Kinki region, exhibit greater indifference toward Takeshima and the Senkaku Islands, while people in closer proximity to these territories tend to be more engaged. Interestingly, however, residents in Hokkaido, the region closest to the Northern Territories, exhibit higher latent indifference than the national average, potentially indicating a divergence between local pragmatic interests and national narratives. These findings challenge the conventional view of a uniformly concerned public and suggest that domestic political constraints on diplomatic compromise may be more flexible than commonly assumed.