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Triangulating Friction Points in the Fentanyl Supply Chain

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  • Austin, Maura

    (University of Virginia)

  • Timbs, Nathan
  • Potter, Philip

Abstract

After more than a decade and billions of dollars spent combatting the worst opioid crisis in US history, the CDC documented a striking decline in fentanyl- related mortality beginning in May 2023. What drove this decline? We synthesize three sources of data – global shipping records, fentanyl seizures, and overdose deaths – to serve as empirical signals through which we gain visibility into critical links in the supply chain. This framework allows us to triangulate where in the supply chain the disruption originated. Our analysis indicates that the decline in overdose deaths stemmed in substantial part from enforcement operations that destabilized Mexican cartels’ production and trafficking networks, alongside any effects of precursor controls, domestic enforcement, and harm-reduction efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Austin, Maura & Timbs, Nathan & Potter, Philip, 2026. "Triangulating Friction Points in the Fentanyl Supply Chain," SocArXiv kzw6q_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:kzw6q_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/kzw6q_v1
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