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Addressing Rural Unemployment Disparities in Oregon: A Spatial Analysis and Multi-Criteria Policy Evaluation

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  • Carnley, Styles

Abstract

Oregon's unemployment rate of 5.2% in February 2026 exceeds the national average of 4.4% and has diverged from national trends since June 2024. County-level Bureau of Labor Statistics data reveals a 4.5 percentage point spread across Oregon's 36 counties, with the highest rates concentrated in rural eastern and southern counties. This analysis uses ArcGIS Online spatial visualization and a Weighted Sum Model Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to evaluate three workforce policy alternatives. Remote-friendly small business incentives received the highest weighted score (4.05), supported by SBA Office of Advocacy data showing small businesses employ 54.3% of rural workers nationally. This analysis recommends Oregon establish a Rural Remote-Friendly Small Business Incentive Program targeting residents of high-unemployment rural counties starting or expanding businesses that can operate online or serve clients remotely.

Suggested Citation

  • Carnley, Styles, 2026. "Addressing Rural Unemployment Disparities in Oregon: A Spatial Analysis and Multi-Criteria Policy Evaluation," SocArXiv jm6cy_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:jm6cy_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/jm6cy_v1
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