LGBT+ Establishment Trends in the United States: A Panel Data Analysis (1990-2000)

Much of the existing work on LGBT+ placemaking relies on qualitative or historical narratives, which lack the empirical precision to systematically evaluate the structural factors driving the presence and evolution of LGBT+ establishments over time. To address these shortcomings, my paper examines the spatial evolution of LGBT+ establishments in US cities between 1990-2000, using a novel panel dataset combining geocoded Damron Guide entries from Mapping the Gay Guides (MGG) with contextual data from the NHGIS/U.S. Census Bureau. Employing fixed-effects panel models and difference-in-differences frameworks, my analysis investigates how establishment-level and MSA-level factors predict the presence and turnover dynamics of LGBT+ establishments over time. My findings reveal that bars/clubs and erotic shops have a higher likelihood of presence in MSAs relative to accommodations. Theatre/entertainment venues exhibit higher entry and stability into MSA markets, whereas other establishment types face volatile turnover. I also find that the so-called “great cities," ubiquitous in works on LGBT+ placemaking, exhibit conditions favorable to the viability of LGBT+ establishments and yet exhibit no significant differences in turnover dynamics compared to other MSAs. My findings extend qualitative narratives by quantifying the impacts of economic changes, demographic shifts, and cultural influences, which should inform urban policy and advocacy efforts to sustain inclusive LGBT+ spaces amidst changing urban landscapes.