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Small Area Estimation for Crime Analysis

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  • Buil-Gil, David

    (University of Manchester)

Abstract

Victimization surveys provide key information about crimes known and unknown to the police, and are the main source of data to analyze perceived safety and trust in the police. These surveys, however, are only designed to allow the aggregation of responses and production of reliable direct estimates (i.e., weighted means or totals) at very large spatial scales, such as countries or states. Sample sizes are generally too small to produce direct estimates of adequate precision at the increasingly refined spatial scales of the criminology of place. Model-based small area estimation may be used to increase the reliability of small area estimates produced from victimization surveys. Small area estimation techniques are designed to produce reliable estimates of parameters of interest (and their associated measures of error) for areas for which only small or zero sample sizes are available. In 2008, the US Panel to Review the Programs of the Bureau of Justice Statistics recommended the use of small area estimation to produce subnational estimates of crime. Since then, these techniques have been applied to study many variables of interest in criminology. This chapter introduces theory and a step-by-step exemplar study in R to show the utility of small area estimation to analyze crime and place. Small area estimates of trust in the police are produced from European Social Survey data.

Suggested Citation

  • Buil-Gil, David, 2020. "Small Area Estimation for Crime Analysis," SocArXiv gtbyu, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:gtbyu
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/gtbyu
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