The disaster, conflict, and state capacity nexus: A closer look at northwestern Pakistan after the 2010 floods

The aim of this interdisciplinary study is to contribute to the field of disaster and climate conflict research. For this purpose, I qualitatively examine for the first time the impact of the devastating flood of 2010 on the conflict in Pakistan, more specifically the regional capacity of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), in the administrative units of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (KPK). Also, I introduce the concept of state capacity into the debate, review its impact on the conflict and examine its possible contribution to the debate. I hypothesise that the concept of state capacity can explain the conflict better than the influence of disasters. This is tested with the help of a document analysis and expert interviews. Prior findings from mostly quantitative studies, such as the complex, bidirectional nature of the relationship between disasters and conflict or the concept of the unnatural disaster, were qualitatively confirmed and further explored in this study. It becomes clear that while the flood can provide benefits to the TTP and prolong the conflict, it cannot fundamentally change the outcome of the conflict. In this context, the key finding of this study is the importance of state capacity for the complex debate around disasters and climate conflict. More research in this direction is recommended, as the topic is expected to become much more relevant due to the increasing number and intensity of extreme weather events in the coming decades.