Engineering, Procurement, and Construction Leadership and Project Complexity in the German Large Industrial Plant Manufacturing Industry: A Strategic Analysis of Competitive Dynamics in an Era of Global Competition

This conceptual paper develops an integrated framework for understanding how multi-dimensional project complexity management capabilities mediate competitive dynamics in Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) industries. Drawing on systematized narrative review of literature from 2020 to 2025, combined with foundational complexity theory, two complementary models are constructed: an ascending pathway depicting how emerging contractors systematically build technical, organizational, and environmental capabilities to achieve global EPC leadership; and a descending pathway characterizing how established leaders experience capability erosion when organizational and environmental complexity management capabilities deteriorate faster than technical knowledge persists. The core theoretical contribution demonstrates that sustainable EPC competitive advantage increasingly derives from the ability to simultaneously manage high technical, organizational, and environmental complexity, rather than technical knowledge alone. This insight is operationalized through a Technical-Organizational-Environmental (TOE) complexity framework, mapping how capability phases correspond to distinct complexity profiles and identifying critical junctures where strategic intervention can alter trajectory. The framework is applied diagnostically to the German Large Industrial Plant Manufacturing Industry (GLIPMI), identifying distinct subsectors in different phases of capability erosion and specifying sector-specific vulnerabilities and intervention points. Eight testable propositions are formulated connecting complexity management capabilities to competitive outcomes. The paper provides both theoretical grounding for capability-based competition in EPC markets and practical implications for firms, industry associations, and policymakers. However, it needs to be acknowledged that this framework represents theory-building rather than empirical validation; the propositions require future primary research to test causal mechanisms and boundary conditions. The analysis suggests that complexity management capability is necessary for sustained EPC leadership but may not be sufficient when confronted with asymmetric subsidization, pricing pressures, or structural financing disadvantages.