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Reversing Brain Drain: An Econometric Framework For Regional Human Capital Retention

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  • Adedokun, Emmanuel Kolade

Abstract

This study investigates the structural determinants of regional youth out-migration and brain drain within South Korea, focusing on Gangwon Province as a critical case study. Utilizing regional empirical data spanning the 2015–2026 period, we construct a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression models to isolate the impacts of regional employment opportunities, internal migration flows, healthcare quality of life indicators, and capital investment vectors on demographic retention. Grounded in Human Capital Theory (HCT), the empirical findings reveal that localized employment availability acts as a primary positive driver of youth retention, yielding a statistically significant coefficient of 1.142 (p = 0.004\). Conversely, acute healthcare infrastructure deficits and systemic out-migration vectors exert powerful inverse pressures that accelerate regional demographic contraction. Predictive analysis for the 2026–2030 horizon indicates that marginal nominal wage increases face diminishing returns due to the structural agglomeration gravity of the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). The study concludes that mitigating regional human capital leakage requires provincial policies to pivot away from generalized physical infrastructure allocations toward targeted talent placement, localized industry-academic integration via the Regional Innovation System & Education (RISE) framework, and robust soft infrastructure enhancements.

Suggested Citation

  • Adedokun, Emmanuel Kolade, 2026. "Reversing Brain Drain: An Econometric Framework For Regional Human Capital Retention," SocArXiv aecjr_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:aecjr_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/aecjr_v1
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