Rising Mortality In High-Income Western Countries Amid Socioeconomic Progress: A Divergence From Trends In Non-Western Regions

This study examines mortality dynamics across major macroeconomic regions—Western countries, non-Western regions, and China—from 1960 to 2023, exploring variability and underlying drivers. Descriptive analysis shows that non-Western regions experienced the highest death rates in 1960–1990, followed by a marked decline as GDP per capita increased. China exhibited a similar pattern. Conversely, Western countries achieved only modest mortality reductions after 1991 despite sustained economic growth, even when controlling for population aging (≥65 years). Regression models and partial correlations indicate that economic progress initially correlates with mortality decline in all regions. However, in Western countries, this relationship reverses after 1991, forming an inverted-U curve when mortality is modeled against GDP per capita and elderly share. This suggests diminishing health returns and potential adverse effects of advanced development—such as environmental degradation, lifestyle-related diseases, and occupational risks. Non-Western regions, with slower economic acceleration, show no comparable reversal. Findings imply that beyond a development threshold, further growth may paradoxically elevate mortality. Policy strategies should prioritize balanced, sustainable development and integrated “One Health” approaches to mitigate health risks associated with over-rapid economic expansion.