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驾驭复杂性：基于中国治理实践的"诊断-适应"型决策模型研究

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  • 李建平

Abstract

：当前公共政策研究在应对系统性、复杂性社会问题时，常面临理论模型与 现实决策脱节的困境。本文基于中国独特的治理实践，提炼出一个名为"诊断 适应"型的核心决策逻辑。该逻辑体系由"实事求是-顺是而为-守正创新"三个递 进环节构成，分别对应认知、实践与价值三个维度。在此基础上，本文进一步提 出"情境-势位-策略"三元分析框架，将上述决策逻辑操作化为包含情境界定、势 位诊断与策略选择的系统性分析工具。通过对脱贫攻坚战的深度案例研究，并辅 以疫情防控的对比分析，本文展示了该框架如何帮助决策者在复杂治理情境中把 握主要矛盾、评估约束条件并选择适应性策略。本研究不仅为理解中国治理效能 提供了一个理论透镜，也为全球复杂性治理贡献了一个具有操作价值的方法论参 考

Suggested Citation

  • 李建平, 2025. "驾驭复杂性：基于中国治理实践的"诊断-适应"型决策模型研究," SocArXiv 2qdkc_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:2qdkc_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/2qdkc_v1
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