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感染症対策「日本モデル」を検証する: その隠された恣意性

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  • Tanaka, Sigeto

Abstract

日本モデルとは、新型コロナウイルス感染症対策専門家会議の2020年4月1日「新型コロナウイルス感染症対策の状況分析・提言」(第2回) に出現した用語で、「市民の行動変容とクラスターの早期発見・早期対応に力点を置いた日本の取組」をあらわす。この日本モデルの前提となっているのが、少数の感染者がいわゆる「３密」の状況で大量の2次感染を起こすという想定である。本稿では、この想定の元となった2020年2月26日までの感染状況の分析結果と、専門家がそれを改変して説明に使用してきたグラフを検討し、恣意的な仮定に基づいた解釈がおこなわれていたこと、別の仮定を置けば日本モデルは支持できなくなることをあきらかにする。さらに、新型コロナウイルス感染症に関しては本件以外にも疑わしいデータが政策判断に使われてきたことを指摘し、第三者による批判・検証可能な情報公開を主張する。

Suggested Citation

  • Tanaka, Sigeto, 2020. "感染症対策「日本モデル」を検証する: その隠された恣意性," OSF Preprints jgv9k, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:jgv9k
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/jgv9k
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