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Quantitative Theory of Mony or Prices? A Historical, Theoretical, and Econometric Analysis

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  • Gómez Julián, José Mauricio

Abstract

This research studies the relation between money and prices and its practical implications analyzing quarterly data from United States (1959-2022), Canada (1961-2022), United Kingdom (1986-2022), and Brazil (1996-2022). The historical, logical, and econometric consistency of the logical core of the two main theories of money is analyzed using objective bayesian and frequentist machine learning models, bayesian regularized artificial neural networks, and ensemble learning. It is concluded that money is not neutral at any time horizon and that, despite money is ultimately subordinated to prices, there is a reciprocal influence over time between money and prices which constitute a complex system. Non-neutrality is transmitted through aggregate demand and is based on the exchange value of money as a monetary unit.

Suggested Citation

  • Gómez Julián, José Mauricio, 2024. "Quantitative Theory of Mony or Prices? A Historical, Theoretical, and Econometric Analysis," OSF Preprints eskmx, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:eskmx
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/eskmx
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Paul A. Samuelson, 1966. "A Summing Up," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(4), pages 568-583.
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