(No) Longer Dependent: the Impact of Reception and Civic Integration Policies on Social Assistance Dependency Among Refugees in the Netherlands

We study how key aspects of asylum and integration policy affect the long-term economic independence of refugees in the Netherlands. Using administrative data on approximately 95,000 refugees registered at Dutch reception centres or granted asylum between 2014 and 2023, we analyse the effects of four policy variables - length of stay in reception centres, number of relocations, completion of the civic integration program, and the level of the integration diploma - on the timing of exit from social assistance into employment. Additionally, we analysed data from the first wave of a panel survey of 2,559 Syrian refugees in the Netherlands. Applying multilevel linear probability discrete-time survival models, we find that prolonged stays in reception centres delay employment for men, particularly those who stay longer than two years, with persistent effects over time. The number of relocations has limited influence, though men who never moved between centres exit assistance more slowly, likely due to selection effects. Completing civic integration strongly accelerates labour market entry for both men and women, with higher-level diplomas (B1/B2) further increasing exit rates. While civic integration appears to support economic inclusion, many refugees still encounter unstable employment. Our findings highlight the long-term implications of integration policies for refugee self-sufficiency and underscore the need for further research on post-integration labour trajectories.