Cycles of Political Violence: Urban Guerrilla and Insurgent Groups

Logistic fits are made to the populations of attacks by urban guerrilla groups in Greece, under the assumption that these organizations grow in competition like species in nature. The data cover the attacks of the major urban guerrilla groups (17N and ELA) plus a number of lesser groups. We conclude that urban guerrilla activities in Greece were triggered into existence by the military junta but had their roots deeper into the earlier political system in Greece. In any case, the life cycle of political violence in Greece had already been completed when the police finally began cracking down on the 17N. Carrying over the biological species analogy to the continuing armed conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan it is demonstrated that logistic fits describe very well the casualties resulting from the action of "insurgent groups" resisting the US presence in these countries. We conclude that in Afghanistan the last cycle of violence will reach its completion by the early months of 2006 while in Iraq the cycle of violence will extend through 2006.