Estimating the impact of the Norwegian Introduction Programme on integration using a Regression Kink Design (RKD): Pre-registration

The Introduction Programme offers language, employment and cultural training for new migrants in Norway. Attendance on the programme is mandatory for most refugees and family reunification migrants (with non-Nordic spouses). Migrants are given a special benefit for attendance (calculated by hours). The amount changes based on an age cut-off: under 25s earn benefits at 2/3 the rate of those over 25. Benefits are calculated per hour of programme attendance. The benefit age cut-off can be used to measure the effects of cash incentives on programme attendance and its knock-on effect on integration outcomes such as education and employment. We propose a Regression Kink Design (RKD) to answer our primary research questions: RQ1: What is the effect of the age-cut off (via benefit rate) on programme participation? RQ2: What is the effect of the age-cut off (via benefit rate) on integration outcomes inclusive of employment status, wages, and further education/ training? RQ3: What is the direct effect of programme participation on integration outcomes? This is estimated using the results of questions 1 and 2. RQ4: What is the variance in programme attendance effects across municipalities? This is looking at the effects identified in RQs 1 and 2 across different intervention sites. RQ5: Do heterogeneous effects exists for a) programme participation and b) integration outcome? This will involve subgroup analysis. RQ6: What are the effects of the changes in rights and obligations at age 55 on programme participation? Over 55s have the right but not the obligation to participate in the Introduction Programme. RQ6 is a scoping question; if a change in participation occurs around this age then this means that the age 55 cut-off can used for further studies (conditional on sample size).