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Estimasi Cerdas Ver-H.1.0

Author

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  • Haryadi, Sigit

    (Institut Teknologi Bandung)

Abstract

Kita tidak mungkin tahu pasti apa yang akan terjadi akan datang, maka kita hanya bisa mengestimasi dengan menggunakan suatu metoda tertentu, dimana setiap metoda harus memiliki rumus untuk membuat persamaan regresi dan rumus untuk menghitung tingkat kepercayaan dari nilai estimasi. Makalah ini menyampaikan suatu metoda estimasi nilai yang akan datang, dimana rumus untuk membuat persamaan regresi adalah berdasarkan asumsi bahwa nilai yang akan datang akan tergantung pada selisih dari nilai-nilai masa lalu yang dibagi dengan suatu faktor bobot yang sesuai dengan jarak waktunya ke saat ini, dan rumus untuk menghitung tingkat kepercayaan adalah akan menggunakan “Indeks Haryadi”. Kelebihan dari metoda ini adalah tetap akurat tidak tergantung ukuran sampel, dan boleh mengabaikan nilai masa lalu yang dianggap tidak relevan.

Suggested Citation

  • Haryadi, Sigit, 2018. "Estimasi Cerdas Ver-H.1.0," INA-Rxiv dhq9y, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:inarxi:dhq9y
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/dhq9y
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