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Macroeconomic Performance and Fiscal Policy Adjustments in the Medium Term: Alternative Medium-Term Scenarios

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  • Pete Richardson
  • Claude Giorno
  • Stephan Thurman

Abstract

This paper describes a number of alternative medium-term scenarios for the OECD economies and related policy stimulations using the OECD world model INTERLINK. The starting point of the analysis is a reference scenario to 2000 featuring a general recovery of the OECD economies to steady state non-inflationary growth. The paper goes on to examine the implications of slower growth for the paths of fiscal balance and public debt, and the changes in policy mix which might be necessary to restore announced fiscal policy objectives whilst limiting damage to the wider range of policy objectives. A further section goes on to examine the simulated effects of changes of fiscal and monetary policy stance on output, employment, inflation and public debt over the medium term ... Ce document décrit, pour les pays de l’OCDE, un certain nombre de scénarios possibles à moyen terme, et des simulations de politique économique correspondantes en utilisant le modèle mondial de l’OCDE : INTERLINK. Le point de départ de cette analyse est basé sur un scénario de référence à l’horizon de l’an 2000, caractérisé par un redressement général des économies de l’OCDE vers un sentier d’une croissance non-inflationniste équilibré. Le document examine ensuite les implications d’une croissance moindre sur le solde budgétaire et la dette publique, ainsi que les changements de "policy mix" qui pourraient s’avérer nécessaires pour rétablir les objectifs de politique budgétaire annoncés, tout en limitant les dommages pour l’ensemble des objectifs de politique économique. Une autre section présente les effets simulés des changements dans les orientations de politiques fiscale et monétaire, sur la production, l’emploi, l’inflation et la dette publique dans une perspective de ...

Suggested Citation

  • Pete Richardson & Claude Giorno & Stephan Thurman, 1994. "Macroeconomic Performance and Fiscal Policy Adjustments in the Medium Term: Alternative Medium-Term Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 148, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:148-en
    DOI: 10.1787/524577826151
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/524577826151
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1997. "Soutenabilité des déficits et ajustements budgétaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 371-395.
    2. J. Duperrut, 1998. "The Maastricht Constraint and Budget Deficits," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 66(2), pages 103-113, June.
    3. Bas Aarle & Lans Bovenberg & Matthias Raith, 1995. "Monetary and fiscal policy interaction and government debt stabilization," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 111-140, June.
    4. Kalle Kukk, 2007. "Fiscal Policy Effects on Economic Growth: Short Run vs Long Run," Working Papers 167, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.

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