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L'allégement de la dette et croissance : Le cas mexicain

  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy
  • Ann Vourc'h

Ce document présente un modèle dynamique de simulation de l'économie mexicaine, centré sur les effets de l'endettement public. Trois principales variables sont au coeur de la dynamique économique qui est décrite ici: le taux d'intérêt réel interne, le prix du marché secondaire de la dette, et le taux de change réel. Le taux d'intérêt réel interne, qui intègre une prime de risque sur les placements au Mexique, associée à un risque d'illiquidité du secteur public, exerce en retour une influence sur les comportements d'investissement du secteur privé. Le prix du marché secondaire, qui intègre lui aussi les effets de la prime de risque, traduit par ailleurs les anticipations à long terme en ce qui concerne la fiabilité financière du Mexique, et influence également les comportements d'investissement. Le taux de change réel, qui résulte de l'équilibre macro-économique sur les biens et services, exerce en retour un effet sur les finances publiques par le biais de la valorisation du ... This paper presents a dynamic model simulating the Mexican economy, concentrating on the effects of public indebtedness. Three main variables are at the heart of the economic dynamic which is described here: the real domestic interest rate, the price of the debt on the secondary market, and the real exchange rate. The real domestic interest rate, which includes a risk premium on investments in Mexico, associated to a risk of illiquidity in the public sector, in turn influences the behaviour of private-sector investment. The price on the secondary market, which also includes a risk-bonus factor, in addition influences long-term expectations of the financial reliability of Mexico and therefore affects investment behaviour. The real exchange rate, which depends on the macroeconomic balance between goods and services, in turn affects public finances through the valuation of the contractual service of the external debt. This model is used to simulate the effects of the Brady plan, the ...

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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 79.

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Date of creation: Oct 1992
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Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:79-fr
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