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Ajustement et distribution des revenus : Application d'un modèle macro-micro au Maroc

Listed author(s):
  • Christian Morrisson
  • Sylvie Lambert
  • Akiko Suwa

Ce document présente la première application du modèle macro-micro exposé dans le document technique no 1 "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution. A macro-micro Simulation Model". Ce modèle est appliqué sur la période 1980-86 au Maroc qui a engagé un programme de stabilisation en 1983. On a d'abord étudié les effets immédiats de chaque mesure décidée par l'Etat sur les principales variables macroéconomiques et sur plusieurs indicateurs sociaux : chômage, inégalité des revenus, pourcentage de pauvres et transfert requis pour garantir un revenu minimum égal au seuil de pauvreté. D'autres simulations montrent dans ce cadre annuel les effets de chocs exogènes comme la sécheresse ou la hausse des prix des importations sur les mêmes variables et indicateurs. Dans une seconde étape, on a procédé à des simulations en dynamique sur trois à cinq ans pour apprécier les effets d'un ensemble de mesures de stabilisation. Ainsi on a simulé une politique d'ajustement ... This paper presents the first application of a macro-micro model introduced in Technical Paper No. 1 "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution. A Macro-micro Simulation Model". Here, the model is applied to Morocco from 1980 to 1986. A stabilization programme was undertaken by Morocco in 1983. We first looked at the immediate effects of each macroeconomic measure implemented by the state on main macroeconomic variables and on unemployment, income inequality, percentage of poor and the poverty gap. Other simulations show the effects on the same variables of exogenous shocks, like droughts or price increases of imports, over one year. Dynamic simulations (on 3- to 5-year periods) were the second step of this analysis, in order to estimate the effects of a package of stabilization measures. We thus simulated three scenarios: a pre-emptive adjustment; a different policy in 1983 and the absence of adjustment in 1983-85. The first lesson we can draw from these simulations is that ...

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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 7.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 1989
Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:7-fr
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