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AI meets trade: Global linkages and the cross-country distribution of the gains from AI

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Filippucci
  • Peter Gal
  • Katharina Laengle
  • Matthias Schief
  • Muhammed A. Yildirim

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of expected per capita real income gains from AI over the next decade in OECD and G20 economies. It relies on a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model to incorporate the role of international trade and considers different scenarios regarding AI adoption paths and AI capabilities. In our central scenario, AI-driven productivity gains vary widely across countries and are expected to raise per capita real income growth by 0.1–0.95 percentage points annually. The model’s dynamics reveal a key insight: while countries lagging in AI adoption can gain from cheaper, AI-intensive imports generated by global diffusion, maintaining competitiveness - especially in highly AI-exposed sectors - ultimately requires strong domestic AI adoption. As a further channel, the paper quantifies the welfare effects generated by international knowledge spillovers boosting AI adoption of countries with relatively lower AI adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Filippucci & Peter Gal & Katharina Laengle & Matthias Schief & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2026. "AI meets trade: Global linkages and the cross-country distribution of the gains from AI," OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers 57, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:comaaa:57-en
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    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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