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The role of China’s feed deficit in international grain markets

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  • Marcel Adenäuer

Abstract

International grain prices experienced a sharp increase during the 2020/2021 marketing season, most likely due to the unprecedented increase of imported grains by China. What would be the possible impact on international grain markets if China remains a strong grain importer? The scenario developed to explore the impact of such a development shows that further increases in Chinese grain imports over the medium term could result in a 4% to 25% increase in agriculture commodity prices compared to what was projected in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Adenäuer, 2022. "The role of China’s feed deficit in international grain markets," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 172, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:agraaa:172-en
    DOI: 10.1787/2138cc7f-en
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    African Swine Fever; Cereal trade; Commodity markets; Food price inflation; Food security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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