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Recovery from Economic Collapse: Insight from Input-Output Models and the Special Case of a Collapsed Oil Producer

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  • John Roberts

Abstract

ESAU Working Paper 6 finds evidence from eight countries having suffered significant, multi-year, falls in per capita incomes, that the majority made remarkable swift economic recoveries. Their record differs from the conclusions presented in the some of the post-conflict literature according to which the supply response is delayed by 3-4 years by infrastructural and institutional bottlenecks. The paper tests the hypothesis, using a very simplified input-output model with stylised calibration, that demand-side stimuli from expenditure on government service, investment or exports, play a significant role in promoting recovery. The model simulates early years' recovery well, but the later recovery period years poorly. The paper presents a partial recovery scenario for Iraq showing that stimulus mainly from oil-financed public expenditure could raise per capita income by some 50% in 5 years.

Suggested Citation

  • John Roberts, 2004. "Recovery from Economic Collapse: Insight from Input-Output Models and the Special Case of a Collapsed Oil Producer," Working Papers 6, Economics and Statistics Analysis Unit (ESAU), Overseas Development Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:odi:wpaper:6
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    File URL: http://www.odi.org.uk/esau/publications/working_papers/esau_wp6.pdf
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    Keywords

    Economic collapse; recovery; Iraq; input-output models;
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