Our Trade Tensions Will Persist Beyond Trump

Looming trade wars unsettle investors and endanger the global economic upswing. The long-term consequences of a withdrawal from global markets, were it to occur, would be much worse. Productivity growth, already low, could turn negative. Citizens would see inflationary pressures escalate with the price of imported products, and their living standards would decline. Large investments have been made in value chains that span the world and turning back would be enormously costly. To avoid this catastrophe, one must look beyond the policy drama in Washington and instead focus more closely on the underlying causes of the trade tensions. The fault lines of the world trading system were visible long before the arrival of Mr. Trump and his departure from the scene will not make them disappear. When his administration ends, whether in January 2024, January 2020 or sooner, truncated by his legal troubles, there may be a return to civility in trade relations, but not to normality.