Beyond Hormuz: Nigeria as Africa's Oil Contingency Plan

The renewed instability in the Middle East has exposed Africa's continued vulnerability to external energy shocks. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies transit, have once again demonstrated that African fuel security remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments beyond the continent. While many African economies have traditionally relied on refined petroleum imports from Gulf producers, the current crisis is accelerating the emergence of a continental alternative. The Dangote Refinery is increasingly functioning as a continental contingency mechanism by supplying refined petroleum products to African markets facing supply uncertainty. Although this role is driven by commercial incentives rather than coordinated policy, it represents an important shift in Africa's energy geography: for the first time, a continental refining hub possesses the scale to partially cushion African markets against external supply disruptions and strengthen Africa's control over the oil value chain. Dangote's potential to serve as a strategic energy supplier for Africa creates significant trade and energy-security opportunities for several African countries, particularly Morocco, whose aviation market has been expanding rapidly since 2024.