ETHIOPIA: IN SEARCH OF FOOD SECURITY GIVEN - Climate Change, Domestic Conflict, and Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Ethiopia continues to struggle to lay the economic foundations of food security for all, more than 30 years after first adopting the East Asian Developmental State Model (EADS) under Zenawi (1911-2012), continued under Hailemariam Desalegn (2012-April 2018), and later shifting toward a neo-liberal, Washington consensus-oriented approach under Abiy Ahmed (2018-present). The achievements recorded under the EADS approach—particularly double-digit annual growth, substantial poverty reduction, and improved well-being—have, so far, not been sustained under the neo-liberal model. Instead, growth has slowed, inflation has risen, and poverty has increased. However, the neo-liberal approach is credited, particularly by the IMF, with initiating key reforms that may lay the foundations for future poverty- reducing growth. What can other developing countries learn from Ethiopia’s experience with two contrasting developmental philosophies in promoting structural transformation—from a low-productivity agriculture economy to a high- productivity, industrialized one? A key lesson emerging from Ethiopia’s ongoing experience is that sustained macroeconomic and political stability over a period of two to three decades— if not longer—is essential for any developmental strategy to yield long-term structural transformation and ensure food security for all. In the case of Ethiopia, the achievements and drawbacks of both approaches have been heavily influenced by the repeated shocks the country has endured, including prolonged droughts, floods, and heatwaves, compounded by various forms of political instability, such as widespread regional and ethnic conflicts. These recurrent shocks render any developmental gains fragile, particularly given Ethiopia’s pre-existing levels of poverty and vulnerability following the civil war that ended with the victory of the EPRDF over the Derg regime in 1991. The fundamental lesson: the necessity of a prolonged period of peace and stability to achieve sustainable and inclusive developmental outcomes. While this lesson may appear self-evident, it remains critically important and worth reiterating in a world marked by ongoing turmoil. Successful agricultural transformation requires decades—typically two to three decades, if not more—of sustained peace and stability.