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Manual for the Long Term Fiscal Model


  • John Woods


The paper sets out a generic approach to the Long Term Fiscal Model (LTFM). The main purpose of the LTFM is to produce Progress Outlooks for Fiscal Strategy Reports. Progress Outlooks of the fiscal position are required by the Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994. The LTFM uses demographic, economic and policy assumptions to project expenses, revenue, assets and liabilities. The projections start from the end of the three-year forecasts in Economic and Fiscal Updates. Projections are usually presented as scenarios to highlight the uncertainty around the projections. The manual contains a technical description of the model and discusses procedures for using the model. A copy of the model is attached to the paper. It is a large spreadsheet run on Excel 97.

Suggested Citation

  • John Woods, 2000. "Manual for the Long Term Fiscal Model," Treasury Working Paper Series 00/02, New Zealand Treasury.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:00/02

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Auerbach, Alan J & Hines, James R, Jr, 1988. "Investment Tax Incentives and Frequent Tax Reforms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 211-216, May.
    2. Kenneth J. McKenzie, 1994. "The Implications of Risk and Irreversibility for the Measurement of Marginal Effective Tax Rates on Capital," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 604-619, August.
    3. Iwamoto, Yasushi, 1992. "Effective tax rates and Tobin's q," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 225-237, July.
    4. Boadway, Robin & Bruce, Neil, 1992. "Problems with integrating corporate and personal income taxes in an open economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 39-66, June.
    5. Don Fullerton, 1983. "Which Effective Tax Rate?," NBER Working Papers 1123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mervyn A. King, 1974. "Taxation and the Cost of Capital," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 21-35.
    7. Kenneth McKenzie & Jack Mintz & Kimberly Scharf, 1997. "Measuring Effective Tax Rates in the Presence of Multiple Inputs: A Production Based Approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 4(3), pages 337-359, July.
    8. Hansson, Ingemar & Stuart, Charles, 1986. "The Fisher Hypothesis and International Capital Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1330-1337, December.
    9. David F. Bradford & Charles Stuart, 1986. "Issues in the Measurement and Interpretation of Effective Tax Rates," NBER Working Papers 1975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Brian McCulloch & Jane Frances, 2001. "Financing New Zealand Superannuation," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/20, New Zealand Treasury.

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