Statistical analysis of matrimonial behaviour

A better understanding of matrimonial behaviour in France is a first step to study the impact of family histories on global fecondity or the interactions between family behaviour and economic choices (labor supply, saving, housing, ...). The purpose of this paper is to describe such behaviours and their recent evolutions using the « French Fertility and Family Survey » (FFS) launched by INSEE and INED in 1994 and the time series of cross-sections of the French Employment Surveys. The main results are the following. Until age 27, people are more likely to start a first union than get married. Furthermore, recent unions are more fragile than marriages. If the behaviours observed in the 1990's do not change, 50% of the unions would finally break up. Before the age of 50, new unions do not compensate the dissolutions. Hence, whatever the age, the propensity to be involved in a union should decrease over time. The estimation of parametric and semiparametric models of the union duration and of the duration between a dissolution and a new union underlines the importance of several individual characteristics to explain matrimonial behaviour.