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Jackknife Model Averaging of the Current Account Determinants

  • Milan Nedeljkovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Branko Uroševic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Emir Zildžovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates the short to medium-term empirical relationships between the current account balances and a broad set of macroeconomic determinants in Serbia and selected CEE countries. Using novel model averaging techniques we focus the analysis to individual country’s data only. The results suggest that the model tracks the current account movements over the past decade quite well and captures its relative volatility. Signs and magnitudes of different coefficients indicate significant heterogeneity among countries providing empirical support for the country-level analysis.

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    File URL: http://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/english/90/90_0/2012_23_MN_BU_EZ_e.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bank of Serbia in its series Working papers with number 23.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nsb:wpaper:23
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bank of Serbia, 12 Kralja Petra St, 11 000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
    Phone: 381-11/3248-841
    Fax: 381-11/3234-120
    Web page: http://www.nbs.rs
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    1. Menzie David Chinn & Eswar Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries; An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 00/46, International Monetary Fund.
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    9. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
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    17. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Current Account Dynamics in OECD Countries and in the New EU Member States: An Intertemporal Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 593-618.
    18. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Africa: Stylized Facts and Basic Determinants," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 191-221.
    19. Jordi Prat & Leandro Medina & Alun H. Thomas, 2010. "Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 10/43, International Monetary Fund.
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