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Jackknife Model Averaging of the Current Account Determinants

  • Milan Nedeljkovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Branko Uroševic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Emir Zildžovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates the short to medium-term empirical relationships between the current account balances and a broad set of macroeconomic determinants in Serbia and selected CEE countries. Using novel model averaging techniques we focus the analysis to individual country’s data only. The results suggest that the model tracks the current account movements over the past decade quite well and captures its relative volatility. Signs and magnitudes of different coefficients indicate significant heterogeneity among countries providing empirical support for the country-level analysis.

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    File URL: http://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/english/90/90_0/2012_23_MN_BU_EZ_e.pdf
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    Paper provided by National Bank of Serbia in its series Working papers with number 23.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nsb:wpaper:23
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bank of Serbia, 12 Kralja Petra St, 11 000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
    Phone: 381-11/3248-841
    Fax: 381-11/3234-120
    Web page: http://www.nbs.rsEmail:


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    1. James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Working Paper 2003-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    4. Hansen, Bruce E. & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2012. "Jackknife model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 38-46.
    5. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Africa: Stylized Facts and Basic Determinants," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 191-221.
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    16. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
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    18. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states - consequences for the enlargement of the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    19. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Current Account Dynamics in OECD Countries and in the New EU Member States: An Intertemporal Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 593-618.
    20. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
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