Fertility and structural change in Hungary Labour Market Status and Education Level of Childbearing Mothers at the Time of Declining Fertility Rates in the 1990s

Today it is a commonly accepted fact that besides fundamental economic and social transformations in the 1990s in Hungary, other, equally far-reaching changes occurred in several domains of life.1 The same applies to demographic processes, or more specifically to phenomena related to family formation as nuptiality or fertility rates. The present study reveals the findings of a research focusing on lesser known and rarely analysed social factors of childbearing. It is well established that fertility rates declined radically in Hungary between 1990 and 2000. It is also known that the phenomenon is not without European parallels and demographic research has revealed many of the factors behind (Lesthaeghe–Moors 2000; Kamarás 2001; Philipov–Kohler 2001). These efforts have been instrumental in demonstrating that the major factors explaining the decline are the increase in the typical childbearing age and, to a lower extent, the rising rate of extramarital fertility. Demographic literature talks about a change of patterns when documenting these processes. Giving birth at a younger age, a practice prevalent in ex-Communist countries, has been replaced by family formation in later age groups. But is this the whole story? Does this supposedly new mode of behaviour apply equally to all groups? Has the decline in fertility assumed the same pattern in all social strata, in the lower, middle and upper layers? Or are there certain traits that generate different patterns? These are some of the questions we would like to answer to in our study. We do not think it likely that the changes ccurred in all social groups with the same speed and penetration and we challenge the notion that the only difference between them is the speed of diffusion. It might well be that in the future we will have diverging patterns of behaviour for social layers existing side by side. The present study cannot possibly undertake a full analysis of the field and has to confine itself to the measurement and interpretation of the impact of two factors, namely the education level and the labour market status of childbearing mothers. Even though we have carefully and consciously limited the scope of the present paper, it does deal with a rather extensive problem. We would like to argue that changes in fertility behaviour are also the outcome of certain “pressures” and “tensions” emerging from the changes in the social and economic structures (c.f. United Nations 2000). Furthermore, we would like to call the attention to the idea, that there is no reason to believe that this mode of behaviour is of a homogenous and undifferentiated character. Of course, we are aware that for distinguishing and isolating social groups, we need a much more differentiated model of social stratification. We are also aware that in childbearing decisions today ideational processes and mental conditions play a decisive part, either in the form of norms or in preferences applied in fertility decisions.3 Still, we think it makes sense to talk about social structures when we look at fertility rates through these two chosen very simple, but usually extremely fruitful factors.