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O euro e o crescimento da economia portuguesa: uma análise contrafactual

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A adesão ao euro representou uma mudança de regime económico. Esta mudança coincidiu com o início de uma década de fraco crescimento económico e divergência em relação à União Europeia. Para além da intensificação da concorrência dos países emergentes e do Centro e Leste da Europa e das fragilidades estruturais, o comportamento decepcionante da economia portuguesa desde a adesão ao euro tem sido atribuído à adopção de políticas económicas inadequadas. O efeito do novo regime económico no crescimento da economia portuguesa de per si tem permanecido ausente da maioria dos estudos. O objectivo da análise contrafactual desenvolvida neste artigo é quantificar o impacto do euro no crescimento do produto interno bruto português. Os resultados sugerem que o crescimento da economia portuguesa foi adversamente afectado pela adesão de Portugal à União Económica e Monetária. No entanto, o euro parece ter funcionado como porto de abrigo durante a recessão provocada pela crise financeira internacional.

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  • Luís Francisco Aguiar & Fernando Alexandre & Manuel Correia de Pinho, 2010. "O euro e o crescimento da economia portuguesa: uma análise contrafactual," NIPE Working Papers 37/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:37/2010
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    File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2010/NIPE_WP_37_2010.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Alexandre & Luís Aguiar Conraria & Pedro Bação & Miguel Portela, 2011. "A Poupança em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2011-19, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.

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