From Fields to Factories: Reform Sequencing and Structural Transformation in China, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan

This paper examines whether differences in reform sequencing during the early reform period are associated with differences in output stability and structural transformation. It compares three transition economies - China (1978-1988), Vietnam (1986-1996), and Uzbekistan (2017-2024) - using a structured comparative case study design. Drawing on the reform sequencing literature, the analysis is organized around the expectation that micro-first sequences, in which agricultural and enterprise reforms precede large-scale macroeconomic and external liberalization, are associated with more stable output and a more balanced pattern of structural change than macro-first sequences. Using data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators, the analysis proceeds through within-case studies and a structured cross-case comparison using descriptive statistics and aligned trend graphs. The patterns observed are broadly consistent with the expectation that sequencing matters. China and Vietnam, which followed micro-first reform sequences, achieved higher average growth rates underpinned by early agricultural productivity gains, avoided negative growth, and exhibited a relatively balanced reallocation of resources across sectors. Uzbekistan's macro-first sequence, which began with exchange rate unification and trade liberalization, also avoided recession, but growth was lower on average and appears to have depended more heavily on expansionary fiscal policy and state-led investment. Structural transformation in Uzbekistan was characterized by rapid industrial expansion without a preceding surge in agricultural productivity, while services expanded more gradually. Labour reallocation patterns and foreign direct investment trajectories reinforce these differences. The paper contributes to the reform sequencing literature by incorporating a contemporary transition into a common comparative framework and offers cautious policy insights for transition economies, particularly regarding the role of micro-level institutional reforms in supporting durable growth and structural transformation.