The Impact of the Tigray War on Child Education and Labor in Ethiopia

This study provides the first empirical evidence on the impact of the Tigray War (2020–2022) on children's education and child labor in Ethiopia. We combine panel data from the 2018/19 and 2021/22 waves of the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with geocoded conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. The analysis focuses on children aged 7–18 across Ethiopia, excluding Tigray due to data limitations and endogeneity concerns. We estimate a Difference-in-Differences model with child fixed effects to compare pre- and post-war outcomes based on proximity to conflict events. We find that children living closer to conflict zones were significantly less likely to attend school or plan for future enrollment, with effects concentrated among boys and those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. Conflict exposure also increased child labor, particularly unpaid work for other households and state-led labor among boys—an underreported form of child involvement in conflict settings. Further analysis and anecdotal evidence suggest that insecurity and state mobilization contributed to boys’ labor participation, ultimately disrupting their education.