IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/8677.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of New Drugs on Mortality from Rare Diseases and HIV

Author

Listed:
  • Frank R. Lichtenberg

Abstract

I investigate the effect of large increases in the number of drugs available to treat rare diseases and HIV on mortality associated with them. Mortality from both diseases declined dramatically following increases in drug approvals. Before the Orphan Drug Act went into effect (between 1979 and 1984), mortality from rare diseases grew at the same rate as mortality from other diseases. In contrast, during the next five years, mortality from rare diseases grew more slowly than mortality from other diseases. I estimate that one additional orphan drug approval in year t prevents 211 deaths in year t+1 and ultimately prevents 499 deaths, and that about 108 thousand deaths from rare diseases will ultimately be prevented by all of the 216 orphan drugs tha t have been approved since 1983. Deaths are more closely related to the number of orphan product designations (which include experimental drugs) than they are to the number of approvals. Consistent with previous patient- level studies of HIV, I find that new drugs played a key role in the post-1995 decline in HIV mortality. I estimate that one additional HIV drug approval in year t prevents 5986 HIV deaths in year t+1 and ultimately prevents 33,819 HIV deaths. HIV drug approvals have reduced mortality both directly and indirectly (via increased drug consumption). HIV mortality depends on both the quality and the quantity of medications consumed, and new drug approvals have a sizeable impact on drug consumption: one additional HIV drug approval in year t results in 1.2 million additional HIV drug units consumed in year t+1 and ultimately result in 3.6 million additional HIV drug units consumed.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2001. "The Effect of New Drugs on Mortality from Rare Diseases and HIV," NBER Working Papers 8677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8677
    Note: HC
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8677.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Cerda, 2007. "Endogenous innovations in the pharmaceutical industry," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 473-515, August.
    2. Shin-Yun Wang & Chih-Chiang Hwang, 2011. "Application of options to the pharmaceutical markets: The solutions of corruption and counterfeit drugs in emerging markets," International Journal of Accounting and Information Management, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 169-181, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.