IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/35839.html

Large Language Models as Voting Mechanisms

Author

Listed:
  • Raša Karapandža
  • Yaw Nyarko

Abstract

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly provide economic and financial advice. We develop a microeconomic framework for understanding this role. We prove that an LLM acts like a voting rule: each input text is an election, possible continuations are candidates, and output probabilities are vote shares derived from the training corpus. Such rules can generate Condorcet cycles, implying intransitive pairwise recommendations and potential money-pump exploitation. Using ChatGPT-4o, we identify millions of cycles in pairwise investment choices among S&P 100 firms. Our theorems establish the voting interpretation on the training data and support its use off-sample. We also show that correcting cycles ex post is generally infeasible. Finally, temperature changes the voting rule: at T = 1, outputs are sampled in proportion to vote shares; lower temperatures favor the plurality winner, whereas higher temperatures flatten probabilities toward uniformity.

Suggested Citation

  • Raša Karapandža & Yaw Nyarko, 2026. "Large Language Models as Voting Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 35839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35839
    Note: AP POL PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w35839.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35839. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.