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Measuring and Projecting U.S. Investment in Semiconductor Manufacturing Capacity

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  • David M. Byrne
  • Robert J. Kurtzman
  • Heidi L. Williams

Abstract

We consider official and alternative data sources for measuring and projecting the role of U.S. manufacturing in the global semiconductor manufacturing industry. We find that the government sources we consider face significant limitations for tracking semiconductor fab investment in real time: they use industry and product categories that are too broad and come with substantial publication lags. We then analyze project-level alternative data from Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), which provides quarterly tracking of individual fab projects with greater timeliness and specificity. Comparing SEMI data with official statistics through 2023, we find broad consistency in investment levels, validating SEMI as a credible supplement to official statistics. This work provides both a practical guide for tracking real-time trends in semiconductor manufacturing and a case study in synthesizing government and alternative data sources.

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Byrne & Robert J. Kurtzman & Heidi L. Williams, 2026. "Measuring and Projecting U.S. Investment in Semiconductor Manufacturing Capacity," NBER Working Papers 35779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35779
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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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