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A Cohort Perspective on Latin America's Fertility Transition

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  • Regina Calles
  • Tom Vogl

Abstract

Latin America's momentous fertility transition is now in the domain of history, allowing a cohort perspective on the decline of completed fertility. Using census microdata from 17 Latin American countries, we track female birth cohorts from the 1920s to the 1970s by subnational region to document the extent to which cohort fertility decline coincided with other demographic and socioeconomic processes. Across cohorts within subnational regions, children ever born fell one-for-one with mortality decline. Expansions in urbanization, multigenerational living, women's and husbands' education, women's employment, and the non-agricultural sector all predicted declines in ever-born and surviving fertility, but women's education and sectoral composition were the dominant forces after covariate adjustment. Fertility decline was not systematically linked with improvements in children's outcomes, including school enrollment, literacy, primary completion, and non-employment. These cohort facts challenge theories of fertility decline centered on women's work and children's education but support others emphasizing women's education.

Suggested Citation

  • Regina Calles & Tom Vogl, 2026. "A Cohort Perspective on Latin America's Fertility Transition," NBER Working Papers 35326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35326
    Note: CH DEV EH LS
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N36 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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