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Valuing Disaster Prevention: Desert Locust Monitoring and Control

Author

Listed:
  • Joséphine Gantois
  • Anouch Missirian
  • Evelina Linnros
  • Anna Tompsett
  • Amir Jina
  • Gordon C. McCord
  • Eyal G. Frank

Abstract

Monitoring systems for disaster prevention are costly, and measuring benefits is difficult when monitoring effort is endogenous. We provide the first causal estimate of one such system's impact using three decades of desert locust monitoring data. We document conflict-induced interruptions to monitoring in remote breeding areas, reconstruct how infestations spread to populated areas, and show that exposure to locust swarms around birth decreases child height-for-age, increasing stunting risk by over 7 percentage points. Eliminating the locust monitoring system would induce annual losses of US$25 billion, implying a benefit-cost ratio between 160:1 and 680:1 from child nutrition benefits alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Joséphine Gantois & Anouch Missirian & Evelina Linnros & Anna Tompsett & Amir Jina & Gordon C. McCord & Eyal G. Frank, 2026. "Valuing Disaster Prevention: Desert Locust Monitoring and Control," NBER Working Papers 35215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35215
    Note: DEV EEE
    as

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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