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The Long-Run Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Partially Pre-Committed Research Design Over the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey Clemens
  • Anwita Mahajan
  • Joseph J. Sabia

Abstract

Adjustment frictions can cause the long-run effects of social insurance reforms to differ from their short-run effects. Using pre-committed extensions of event study specifications applied previously for short-run analyses, we test the hypothesis that the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) impacts on insurance coverage and employment would increase following the substantial churn generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Contrary to the hypothesis, the ACA’s impacts remained stable through the pandemic. Long-run effects on employment and employer coverage were modest and much smaller than initially projected. Our study illustrates how partially pre-committed designs can yield informative long-run estimates while limiting specification search.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Clemens & Anwita Mahajan & Joseph J. Sabia, 2026. "The Long-Run Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Partially Pre-Committed Research Design Over the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery," NBER Working Papers 35190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35190
    Note: AG EH LS PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private

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