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Risky Insurance: Life-Cycle Insurance Portfolio Choice with Incomplete Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph S. Briggs
  • Ciaran Rogers
  • Christopher Tonetti

Abstract

We study consumer demand for savings, life insurance, annuities, and long-term care insurance using novel survey data and a structural life-cycle model. We document that individuals perceive substantial insurance nonpayment risk, and these beliefs predict ownership. Embedding elicited beliefs into an incomplete-markets model alongside additional real-world insurance features, we match empirical patterns of low participation. Relative to a no-insurance benchmark, access to existing imperfect insurance reduces median wealth by 16% and generates a modest 0.6% welfare gain. Eliminating nonpayment risk would substantially increase insurance ownership, yield a further 11% decline in median savings, and generate an additional 1.7% welfare gain.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph S. Briggs & Ciaran Rogers & Christopher Tonetti, 2026. "Risky Insurance: Life-Cycle Insurance Portfolio Choice with Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 35122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35122
    Note: AG AP EFG PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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