Geoeconomic Competition and Capital Reallocation in Global FX Funding

We study geoeconomic competition and capital reallocation in global financial markets, using the foreign exchange (FX) funding market as our empirical setting. FX funding, obtained by borrowing one currency while pledging another through FX swaps, is instrumental to cross-border investment and provides high-frequency measures of capital reallocation. Countries compete for FX funding through policy actions that shift investment returns or funding costs, thereby inducing global portfolio rebalancing by private investors. We quantify this competition by measuring how one country’s inflow responds to another country’s actions, which we call “reallocation exposure.” Because observed funding flows reflect common shocks and strategic interactions across countries, bilateral influence is difficult to identify. We resolve this challenge by identifying “funding fronts,” the independent margins of portfolio adjustment that enable systematic estimation of reallocation exposure. Applying our framework to a proprietary dataset, we find that FX funding competition is concentrated in a small number of funding fronts, with a dominant U.S. dollar front accounting for most capital reallocation. Consequently, changes in U.S. conditions generate disproportionately large reallocations elsewhere. We use reallocation exposure to construct time-varying measures of geoeconomic power and show that variations systematically track major monetary, fiscal, and geopolitical events. Finally, we characterize the network of financial competition and cooperation and show that strategic responses implied by reallocation exposure align with cross-country movements in policy rates.